Opening Bid?

This is the flag of the Autonomous Kurdish Region of the Republic of Iraq. The Kurds are not Arabs or Persians, and their ethnic area extends from Syria through Turkey and Iraq to Iran (all of whom, save Iraq, have banned public display of the flag).

The news yesterday included a tiny footnote: The President of the region had the Iraqi flag removed from all government buildings and replaced with the flag you see above. I am reasonably certain that the next step for the Kurds will be the proclamation of a Kurdish Republic.

What will happen next?

Well, Turkey has already said that the establishment of an independent Kurdistan would be regarded as a less than friendly act. Its army would likely invade, headed by a hard-liner who was recently appointed Chief of the General Staff. While this would have them butting heads with their fellow NATO member (the United States), I think the Turks are prepared to go that route, and nevermind the EU membership.

And the proclamation of independence just might precipitate a complete and formal declaration of civil war. I think that the signal for this would be the schism of the armed forces, and the collapse of the al-Maliki government.

Better brace yourselves.