That Can's Been Kicked

A British defense analyst has announced that Iran is "Two years" away from developing the capacity to build an atomic bomb.

I recall watching the news during the Iranian Revolution in 1979, and after the theocratic government was installed it was opined by our own CIA that Iran was "Two years" away from developing an atomic bomb.

"Two years."

A Friedman Unit is supposed to be only six months, but of course this predates the Friedman Unit.

So, it's been about thirty-two years since Iran was supposed to be "Two years" away from The Bomb.

Meanwhile, the sanctions against Iran are having an effect.  Iran's stockpiling oil that no-one wants to buy on tankers, it's usual storage facilities rapidly bulging at the seams.  Its national airline may end up completely grounded owing to a lack of maintenance and spare parts.  And the fear of military action or invasion will grow.

Fear, as I've said several times here, is a powerful motivator that can cause people to acquire weapons.  Fear, after all, is what has induced shaky minds to stockpile guns since 2008, and caused even queasier mentalities to formulate and pass "Stand Your Ground" laws.

So the economic constraints from the sanctions, coupled with the incessant warmongering by the neoconservatives and the Israeli lobby here in the USA, may actually bring the pipe dream of intelligence analysts since 1980 to reality.