Tuesday, April 15, 2014

Told You So

In an earlier post, I suggested that after their annexation of the Crimea, the Russians would turn their attention to the Don River basin and the city of Donetsk.  Historically, the Donbass has been the lifeline for the Crimea; supplies from the river area to the peninsula through the Sea of Azov helped Sevastopol hold off the British, French and Turkish armies in the 1854-56 war, and since the peninsula's resource-poor, the Donbass is strategically important. 

I hate being right at times.

So far, nine cities in the eastern Ukraine have seen their central government buildings taken over to varying degrees by either ethnic Russian 'militias' (backed by Russia, of course) or Russian troops in mufti.  Russian Army forces have completed their concentration on the east bank of the Don and seem to be awaiting their orders to cross the river and annex the Sudetenland - er, "come to the fraternal aid of their oppressed ethnic Russian brethren."

At least, that's how it'll be announced.

Ukraine's Interior Ministry troops are reportedly getting ready to take back the buildings and reassert control over the area, but I doubt they'll have the wherewithal or heart to withstand the Russian Army's 30,000 troops. 

I anticipate them getting their jump-off orders from Moscow by midsummer.  If I'm wrong, I'll be wrong.  If I'm right, Ukraine will lose a vital industrial area.

And there are times when I hate being right.


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