The Application of Force, the Search for Solutions

The picture above is of Hamas-launched Qassam and Grad artillery rockets being launched against targets in Israel. These missiles don't have much of a guidance system, being a generally "fire and forget" sort of missile system. And the picture below shows part of Israel's response.


So far, the Israeli Army's penetrated into the Gaza Strip as far as the Mediterranean, splitting the area in two and surrounding Gaza City, the largest population center. Casualties are certain to mount, because no matter how well-guided or 'surgical' your munitions are if you drop them into a city of 400,000 or so people you're bound to hit someone in addition to your target (shrapnel does fly about, you know).

Israel, however, is missing the point.

The point that is being missed is that Israel has to realize that applied firepower will not stop the rockets. No application of force will, and certainly not decapitating strikes against the Hamas leadership (any such merely creates a vacuum that allows more radicalized members to advance to leadership positions; these people will carry on the grudge).

Part of the reason for the economic sanctions that have crippled the Gazan economy and the present military action is a desire on the part of the Israelis to force a change of regime by severing Hamas' links to the general population. We've seen throughout history that that doesn't happen very effectively (I overuse Vietnam as an example, but the argument is still effective; perhaps I should start using Cuba instead). I'm certain there's a political aspect to this as well, as Israel will be having elections soon and the ruling party doesn't want to look like pussies.

Will the application of force work? No. Under the present course of action the best Israel can hope for is another intifada. That's best case; worst case entails Israel taking up the same course Stalin (forced emigration) and Eichmann (extermination) took.

Which, of course, reinforces my contention that Israel is a national analogy to the statistical axiom that abused children tend to grow up to become abusers.

And we must look to the possibility that Israel's actions, and the perception that Arab leaders (Egypt, the Gulf States, etc.) are not doing enough to stop them will drive a further wedge between those Arab leaders and their populations, raising the risks of them being displaced by radical elements. Which will further destabilize the region.

Other nations are trying to get a solution together, but efforts by the United Nations will be blocked by the United States, who nearly always stands ready to block anything having to do with Israel that may affect Israel negatively. Proving, once again, that we are (for some inexplicable reason) Israel's bitch.

So, what can be done?

Were I the Israeli leadership I would immediately pull the troops back to their pre-incursion start lines, and work to undermine Hamas by flooding the Strip with food and other essential supplies (do it under Fatah auspices so as not to foster the perception that it's imperial largesse). At the same time I would make direct appeals to the population, asking for forgiveness on the one hand while pointing out that the current regime's actions precipitated this. I'd also allow the reopening of the sea and air links.

Would it work? Hard to say; I'm not a practitioner of psychohistory. But it might work, as opposed to Israel's current actions, which will not work.

Not a pretty set of prospects, from any angle you care to look at. Until both sides choose to stop talking at each other and start talking to each other we will not see anything resembling peace in that area.